Introduction to Situational Awareness
“Stewardship of vulnerabilities means opening ourselves to harm while remaining hospitable to others for Christ’s sake.”
-Anna Hampton, Facing Fear
It is stewardship to increase and improve our skills of observation of the culture, analyses of the dangers, and changing/shifting trends. This will inform our risk assessment and mitigation.
Security analyses is way more than just reading about an analysis of terrorist trend attacks, and what (dis)information is being published in the local media. Pay attention holistically:
1. Watch changes in the art.
One of the first ways to see cultural shifts is through the art. What art is being publicly displayed, and notice when/if there are changes. In Turkey for example, the art changed from Western art to a mix of Ottoman Empire and the West. This demonstrated the subtle shift in Turkey from being more of a Western democracy and moving towards Islamic Shariah law.
2. What music is being played publicly?
If you get in a taxi and the music is all Islamic (Koranic prayers), and the driver looks like a radical Muslim, you may want to get out at the next light. What music is being played on the speakers in the airport or local shopping mall? This will give you a sense for the moods of the people as well as the pressures on them from local political and religious leaders.
3. Notice the public billboard advertisements as well as newspaper ads.
Current fashion trends will tell a lot about the pressure on women - is the government moving towards Shariah or towards western trends? In Turkey, there were regularly battles of the bill boards - a western clad Turkish woman on one side of the highway and the raincoat-and-scarf-covered Turkish woman on the other side (which always seemed to reveal more of a woman's curves then the western clothes anyway).
4. Mosque Preaching
Ask a trusted local friend to go to Mosque at 1pm on Friday and listen to what is being preached and report back to you. What are the changes week to week of attitudes towards outsiders?
5. Listen and watch for nuanced changes in reporting.
For example, most of the time we ignored the US Embassy Warden Security Reports. But! Pay attention to slight changes in phrases - this is a goldmine of data for reflection. Also pay attention to disagreements between Embassies on the security notices (American vs. British vs. German). This will reveal the politics and interests behind each nation's involvement in that host country.
6. Watch the faces and attitudes of shopkeepers.
If they scowl when they see you coming because you are a foreigner/outsider, than consider going elsewhere to shop and get out of there.
7. Threats on the street from school children and teenagers.
I had returned to Kabul after being gone for a few years, and was trying to enter my gate at around 1pm on a Friday. Some larger stones (bigger then pebbles) whizzed by my head and hit the wall next to my head so hard the stones bounced back 5 feet. I ducked into the gate, then asked my friends who had been there awhile how to interpret this. They pointed out I was entering the gate right when the local madrasa was releasing the teens to go to Friday prayer, so the teens were agitated and fired up. They suggested I avoid being on the street at that time in the future.
8. Sports Cheering
Who do locals cheer for in the televised futbol (soccer) matches, and what is their attitude in cheering towards western nations? For example, I asked my Turkish friend why Turks were cheering for Russians instead of Americans? What was the motivation? Are they against Americans in any situation or are they simply more for Russians in general. The difference in such a situation may be very telling of the mood of locals towards your demographic.
9. Read and understand the history of your location going back 500-1000 years.
Often times modern conflicts have their roots in historical conflicts that have never resolved and will or are flairing up. It's important when you get to a new place to learn the major ethnic groups and the order of power. Pay attention to spiritual and religious movements as well. We learned that Konya is the birthplace of whirling dervishes, so that told us a lot about the spiritual tone of that city.
10. Learn how to tell the physical characteristics of each local Ethnic group.
For example, an Armenian colleague taught us that Turks have flat heads in the back. Once she pointed it out, we could then differentiate between Turks and other groups (Kurds, Armenians), etc. Then she taught us how to tell by the spelling of names the differences between ethnic groups. Another colleague taught us the meaning of facial hair styles on the men. Different styles of beards and mustaches can also indicate education and socio-economic levels.
Understanding all of these things will help increases our situational awareness.
