Death Threat Assessment
We do not quit or leave just because we may have received a death threat. Pause, assess, breathe. Choose your actions carefully.
“Public rants are theater, private messages are commitments. ”
Download PDF (Framework Table version included)
There are two main types of death threats: Anonymous and threats from identifiable (known) sources.
Immediately:
Determine credibility
Ascertain probability
Mitigate
Continue to investigate
Build bridges of peace to the threat entity
It may be wise to move locations while you engage in the full death threat assessment process and get additional evaluation inputs from a variety of sources. But it is not necessarily immediately the time to escape…yet. Work the problem, quickly, without panicking.
The questions and process given here is not limited to just these questions and process here. But this will get you started and equipped so as to not freeze.
We use the main skills of general threat assessment – assessing Credibility, Motivation, and Opportunity (mnemonic: Can My Opponent?), but expand our analysis to include these significant questions when the threat is by an individual towards another individual:
How was the communication delivered?
How many communications have been received and by whom?
During what time frame?
Is this an isolated, one-time threat or a series of threats issued through various means?
Is there a potential relationship between the issuer of the threat and the intended target?
Does the danger indicate a time frame?
Are there any apparent means and opportunities for the issuer to carry out the threat?
What is the motive of the threat?
Who is targeted by the threat?
What steps did they take to anonymize the threat?
About the intended target: What information is there about conflicts or past witnessing conversations that the intended target had in the local culture?
If the target is an organization or company, what are their relationships with employees and families, business suppliers, and government ministers?
Intimacy Effect
The closer the relationship, the more valid and probable the threat. A threat from someone relationally close requires immediate action of protection.
Is the author of the threat justifying the threat with moral righteousness as a cause for action?
Is the author revealing contempt towards the target?
Does the author of the threat have the means to act on the threat?
Does the author display acceptance of the consequences if they act on the threat?
Does the author include a “no other alternative” aspect of the threat?
Does the author include the specific name of the target?
Does the author have a relationship with the target? (intimacy effect)
When the death threat is issued by a people group or entity like a government:
Use previous questions, and also ask:
How strategic would it be for them to kill you? (What do they have to gain by killing you?)
How militant are they in reality?
Do they have the means to kill you?
Do they have the opportunity to kill you (schedule, movement, place?)
Threat levels are based on the degree to which a combination of the following factors are present: (2)
Existence: A hostile person or group is able to gain access to a given locality.
Capability: The capability of a hostile person or group to carry out an attack has been assessed or demonstrated as possible.
Intent: Evidence of hostile activity, including stated or assessed intention to conduct the action.
History: Demonstrated hostile activity in the past.
Targeting: Current credible information or activity exists that indicates pre-operations for specific hostile operations – intelligence collection by a suspect group, preparation of destructive devices, other actions.
Security environment: Indicates if and how the political and security posture of the threatened person or community affects the capability of hostile elements to carry out their intentions. Address whether the government, community, or family is concerned with terrorism and whether it has taken proactive countermeasures to deal wich such a threat.
(1) Hampton, Facing Fear, 174-176.
(2) Leson, Assess and Managing, 13-14.
